Marijuana Election Issue

2016 Cannabis Legalization

Will Election Day result in champagne showers and celebratory toasts in the U.S. marijuana industry or great heartache and disappointment?

Evaluating by the latest round of ballot data, there’s reason to be positive– though cannabis executives may not be celebrating quite yet.

Taking an average of all October polling information in states where marijuana legalization efforts are on the ballot, the chances of success for the majority of the marijuana legalization efforts will come down to basically a coin flip. Support in many states is just above or below the limit needed to pass and well within the margin of error which could result in Tuesday being a nail-biter.

Although a majority of Americans support the legalization of cannabis, these findings highlight simply how controversial the issue remains at the state level throughout the country.

Florida appears to have the very best possibility of success. Regardless of the more than $3 million raised by state tally committees in opposition to a medical marijuana legalization procedure on the ballot, assistance for the proposition is approaching 75%– well above the 60% needed to pass.

A 2014 medical cannabis legalization change fell just short of the 60% limit. However, the October ballot for this year’s amendment is well above where polling was during the exact same month two years earlier.

Almost $20 million has been raised by ballot committees supporting cannabis legalization in California– more than any other state ballot on marijuana legalization this year– and support for this initiative is polling at 55%. Polls have surprisingly revealed support varying from 51% on the low end to 60% on the high end, so the race might be closer than many who have been following this closely had at first anticipated.

By averaging two polls taken in October regarding Massachusetts, it shows support for recreational or adult use legalization above the 50% mark, though one shows the initiative passing while the other potentially failing by a slim margin.

Massachusetts Republican governor and Bostons Democratic mayor have actually both come out opposing marijuana legalization, and a current $850,000 donation by the Boston Archdiocese of the Catholic Church guarantees the step will be fiercely objected in the coming election night.

Just one October poll relating to Maine’s recreation or adult use marijuana legalization ballot initiative has been launched, and it shows voters are divided on this initiative, regardless of the massive funding disparity that favors the adult use ballot initiative.

In Nevada– which is the home to casino tycoon Shaldon Adelson, the biggest private contributor to ballot committees in opposition to marijuana legalization– shows after 2 surveys taken in late October, the program support for a recreational cannabis legalization ballot effort sits directly at 50%.

Just like the situation in Massachusetts, one survey puts support at 47% while the other has it at 53%.

Support for Arizona’s recreational cannabis legalization ballot initiative is trending below 50% using an average of 3 October surveys, though 2 October polls show the initiative passing with approximately 50% of the vote while the other reveals the initiative not passing with 44% of the vote.

Arizona being a top medical marijuana market in the U.S. still shows major companies like U-Haul making large contributions against cannabis legalization in Arizona.

In Arkansas– where the state Supreme Court disqualified one of two medical marijuana legalization ballot initiatives– support for medical marijuana legalization lacks the needed support. Supporters once thought that 2 contending efforts could divide support and trigger both to stop fail, it’s now possible the single remaining initiative may not pass on its own.

An October survey in Montana is the state’s only ballot initiative for cannabis, which shows 44% support for an initiative to legislate MMJ dispensaries and business cultivation operations.

Steve Goldner QA Cannabis Consultant




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